The Giant Game of Chess, the Herrmann Hypothesis and Bunker Solution
The Giant Game of Chess, the Herrmann Hypothesis and Bunker Solution
Facebook and Apple are at war in an untimed chess match.
For Facebook and Instagram advertisers, this means disaster (Possibly for Google too).
In September 2019, ROAS and CPA’s dropped across advertiser ad accounts world wide.
I first learned about why ROAS was tanking by David Herrmann, a veteran Direct-to-Consumer advertiser.
His hypothesis of declining performance was because of Apple’s new iOS 13 patch after the release of the iPhone 11. I’ve decided to dub it the Herrmann Hypothesis.
One of the updates was Apple blocked cookies by default after 24 hours.
No cookies, no tracking…
No tracking, wonky pixel performance…
No tracking, inaccurate ROAS and Ads Manager reporting data…
Brands may be getting purchases that aren’t attributed on Facebook.
My concern is Facebook isn’t relaying that data back to its pixel data and algorithm.
This means advertisers can be optimizing for conversions but Facebook gets confused.
“Hey, you wanted me to find people that like to buy so I found you these people…But I don’t see anyone buying, I guess I need to find a new audience to go after”.
It’s a giant game of chess with these giant Tech Companies. If it’s not Apple versus Facebook it’ll be Apple versus Google. Or it’ll be Amazon for Apple. The 4 horsemen have infinite leverage in today’s society.
The short term fix to wonky performance and mis-accurate information is what I’m dubbing the Bunker Solution.
The second and third solutions were recommended by a Digital OG named Depesh Mandalia, who’s spent over $30M in media buying and has generated $100M+ in revenue.
Here’s the Bunker Solution to protect yourself against ROAS-pocalpyse:
If attribution gets harder to keep track of because companies like Apple block cookies from being tracked, going cross-channel is a sure way to hedge your bets.
Plus taking initiative to treat your accounts like offline accounts. Use offline conversions to start measuring your data.
I don’t know about you but when mommy and daddy are fighting, I want to make sure I avoid collateral damage and I’m off the chessboard.
What do you think about Facebook ROAS-pocalypse? How has it affected you?
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