Here's why Facebook ROAS has plummeted and what to do about it

Here's why Facebook ROAS has plummeted and what to do about it​

The Giant Game of Chess, the Herrmann Hypothesis and Bunker Solution

The Giant Game of Chess, the Herrmann Hypothesis and Bunker Solution ​

Bobby Fischer was an American chess grandmaster and considered the greatest chess player of all time.

Facebook and Apple are at war in an untimed chess match.

For Facebook and Instagram advertisers, this means disaster (Possibly for Google too).

In September 2019, ROAS and CPA’s dropped across advertiser ad accounts world wide.

I first learned about why ROAS was tanking by David Herrmann, a veteran Direct-to-Consumer advertiser.

His hypothesis of declining performance was because of Apple’s new iOS 13 patch after the release of the iPhone 11. I’ve decided to dub it the Herrmann Hypothesis.

One of the updates was Apple blocked cookies by default after 24 hours.

No cookies, no tracking…

No tracking, wonky pixel performance…

No tracking, inaccurate ROAS and Ads Manager reporting data…

Brands may be getting purchases that aren’t attributed on Facebook.

My concern is Facebook isn’t relaying that data back to its pixel data and algorithm.

This means advertisers can be optimizing for conversions but Facebook gets confused.

“Hey, you wanted me to find people that like to buy so I found you these people…But I don’t see anyone buying, I guess I need to find a new audience to go after”.

It’s a giant game of chess with these giant Tech Companies. If it’s not Apple versus Facebook it’ll be Apple versus Google. Or it’ll be Amazon for Apple. The 4 horsemen have infinite leverage in today’s society. 

The short term fix to wonky performance and mis-accurate information is what I’m dubbing the Bunker Solution.

 I like to give credit where credit is due (That was a jab at Apple 🤫). The first solution I attribute to David Herrmann who identified this Apple versus Facebook concern in the first place. 

The second and third solutions were recommended by a Digital OG named Depesh Mandalia, who’s spent over $30M in media buying and has generated $100M+ in revenue.

Here’s the Bunker Solution to protect yourself against ROAS-pocalpyse:

  1. Track blended results across all channels at- Diversify across platforms and leverage points. YouTube, Google, TikTok, Outbrain, Tabloo, Text Messaging, Email, Coonversion Rate Op Be cautious of using Facebook as the source of truth.

  2. Use Advanced Matching – which tracks fill forms (phone number, email, address) and increases accuracy of pixel tracking.


  3. Load up Offline Conversions – uploading a list of new customers every week to more accurately see the impact of Facebook ads plus keep Facebook optimization stable by feeding it the purchase data it needs. (I recommend uploading phone numbers, much better accuracy match).

If attribution gets harder to keep track of because companies like Apple block cookies from being tracked, going cross-channel is a sure way to hedge your bets.

Plus taking initiative to treat your accounts like offline accounts. Use offline conversions to start measuring your data.

I don’t know about you but when mommy and daddy are fighting, I want to make sure I avoid collateral damage and I’m off the chessboard.

What do you think about Facebook ROAS-pocalypse? How has it affected you?

Mind and Mastery

I share what I’ve learned with BlitzMetrics, a marketing firm powering today’s largest brands like Nike and the Golden State Warriors. 

You’ll hear about my approach to marketing, branding, and what I’ve learned when it comes to mindset and mastery. Because without the latter, it’s tough to do the former. Let’s stay connected and grow together.